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Assessing Ontario’s Fiscal Prospects in the Aftermath of the COVID Crisis

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March 2, 2022

Like other Canadian provinces, Ontario’s finances, and its plan to achieve fiscal balance, have been negatively impacted by the COVID crisis. The broad range of measures taken by governments at all levels to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, such as stay at home orders and capacity restrictions, have had a negative impact on Ontario’s economy. This was mitigated somewhat by fiscal measures, such as direct transfers to individuals and wage supports to businesses, implemented by both the Ontario and the federal government.

All told, Ontario has recorded large budgetary deficits in fiscals 2020-21 and 2021-22 and its debt burden has risen markedly. Ontario’s fiscal deficits are projected to persist in the medium term, as the economy continues to recover from the depths of this crisis. Moreover, it is likely that the need to increase spending in key areas identified during this crisis, such as to address surge capacity at hospitals and inadequacies in long-term care homes, will likely lead to elevated pressures on the province’s finances and debt burden, which ultimately will negatively impact the province’s credit metrics.

Joining us to discuss prospects for the province’s economic and fiscal outlook and the potential impact of the deterioration on its credit metrics is Rebekah Young, Director of Fiscal & Provincial Economics at Scotiabank and Douglas Offerman, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings.

 

There are no slides for this webinar.

Rebekah Young Vice President, Head of Inclusion and Resilience Economics, Scotiabank Rebekah Young

Rebekah Young provides thought leadership on inclusive economic growth that is resilient in an evolving and ever-changing world. Rebekah joined Scotiabank in 2019 as Director, Fiscal & Provincial Economics, while also covering the global auto sector. Previously, she held senior roles at the IMF, the Department of Finance, and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. She holds a B.A. in Chemical Engineering from McGill University, an M.Sc. in Environmental Policy from the London School of Economics in London, England, and an MBA from INSEAD in Fontainebleau, France and Singapore.

Douglas Offerman Senior Director, Public Finance Department, Fitch Ratings Douglas Offerman

Doug Offerman is a Senior Director in Fitch Ratings’ Public Finance Department responsible for Fitch’s portfolio of Canadian provincial and other subnational credits. He is also Fitch’s subject matter expert on public pensions, supporting credit analysis across several sectors. Doug was awarded Fitch’s Analytical Contribution and Excellence (ACE) award in 2019 in the influencer category in recognition of his expertise and impact on pension-related work.

Before joining Fitch 19 years ago, Doug worked in nonprofit financial management, and researched city and state budget and labor issues for the Citizens Budget Commission of New York. He also worked for the U.S. government at the U.S. Information Agency, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, and Corporation for National Service. He began his career working for the State of California. Doug graduated from U.C.L.A. (B.A. in History) and Columbia Business School (M.B.A.).

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