Defining Humility: Confessions of Crisis-Era Nowcasters

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Forecasting is challenging at the best of times, and even more so during unprecedented times like a global pandemic. It takes skill to get it right, and a sizeable slice of humble pie when you don’t. To walk us through the lessons learned forecasting over short horizons (“nowcasting”) during the pandemic are three well-known experts in the field. Please join them as they walk us through the challenges they faced and the lessons they learned as a result.

Resources:

Download the slides in PDF format

TABE Webinar – The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model during the pandemic
TABE Webinar – Scotiabank Nowcast
TABE Webinar – Confessions of a Crisis-Era Nowcaster

Slides and video from TABE Webinar “Nowcasting: Tracking Economic Activity during a Pandemic” from May 2020 with Randall Bartlett

Policy Adviser and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Patrick Higgins

Patrick Higgins is a policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He helps develop forecasting models and contributes to the Atlanta Fed’s weekly Deflation Probabilities report. Higgins also helped develop the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow “nowcasting” forecast to help monitor the state of the economy in real time.

Director of Economic Forecasting, Scotiabank Nikita Perevalov

Nikita Perevalov is a Director of Economic Forecasting at Scotiabank, responsible for forecasting and analysis of the Canadian and global economies, publishing thematic research pieces as well as running Scotiabank’s Canadian GDP nowcast. Prior to joining Scotiabank, Nikita worked at the Bank of Canada, most recently as a Research Advisor, focusing on model development and forecasting of the Canadian and global economies.

Senior Director of Canadian Economics, Desjardins Group Randall Bartlett

Randall Bartlett is the Senior Director of Canadian Economics with Desjardins Group. Based in Toronto, he covers the Canadian and provincial economies & housing markets outside of Quebec, as well as government budgets & fiscal policy.

Before coming to Desjardins, Mr. Bartlett was the Director of Economic Research on OMERS’ Total Portfolio Management Team, where he was responsible for global economic research and forecasting. Prior to that, he was the Chief Economist at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy, where he published Canadian economic, fiscal, and policy analysis. He has also held positions at PSP Investments, TD Economics, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, and the federal Department of Finance.

Mr. Bartlett holds a BA in Mathematical Economics from the University of Guelph and an MA in Economics from the University of Toronto. He also holds the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA).

CABE provides this information as a service to our members. Materials shown in the slides and/or video have been provided with the permission of the speaker(s). All rights belong to them unless otherwise indicated. CABE is not responsible for the accuracy or content of information contained. CABE is not responsible for, and expressly disclaims all liability for, damages of any kind arising out of use, reference to, or reliance on any information contained within this website.