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Defining Humility: Confessions of Crisis-Era Nowcasters

Forecasting is challenging at the best of times, and even more so during unprecedented times like a global pandemic. It takes skill to get it right, and a sizeable slice of humble pie when you don’t. To walk us through the lessons learned forecasting over short horizons (“nowcasting”) during the pandemic are three well-known experts in the field. Please join them as they walk us through the challenges they faced and the lessons they learned as a result.

 

Resources:

Download the slides in PDF format

TABE Webinar – The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model during the pandemic
TABE Webinar – Scotiabank Nowcast
TABE Webinar – Confessions of a Crisis-Era Nowcaster

Slides and video from TABE Webinar “Nowcasting: Tracking Economic Activity during a Pandemic” from May 2020 with Randall Bartlett

Patrick Higgins Policy Adviser and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Patrick Higgins

Patrick Higgins is a policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He helps develop forecasting models and contributes to the Atlanta Fed’s weekly Deflation Probabilities report. Higgins also helped develop the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow “nowcasting” forecast to help monitor the state of the economy in real time.

Nikita Perevalov Director of Economic Forecasting, Scotiabank Nikita Perevalov

Nikita Perevalov is a Director of Economic Forecasting at Scotiabank, responsible for forecasting and analysis of the Canadian and global economies, publishing thematic research pieces as well as running Scotiabank’s Canadian GDP nowcast. Prior to joining Scotiabank, Nikita worked at the Bank of Canada, most recently as a Research Advisor, focusing on model development and forecasting of the Canadian and global economies.

Randall-Bartlett Director, Economic Research, OMERS Randall Bartlett
Randall Bartlett is Director of Economic Research in the Total Portfolio Management team at OMERS, responsible for the global economic forecast, current analysis, and thematic research, including developing and running real GDP and inflation nowcasts for a broad group of major economies. Prior to joining OMERS, Randall was Chief Economist of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy, where he published Canadian economic and fiscal analysis, including developing Nowcast Canada. He has also held positions at PSP Investment, TD Economics, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, and federal Department of Finance.

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