Forecasting is challenging at the best of times, and even more so during unprecedented times like a global pandemic. It takes skill to get it right, and a sizeable slice of humble pie when you don’t. To walk us through the lessons learned forecasting over short horizons (“nowcasting”) during the pandemic are three well-known experts in the field. Please join them as they walk us through the challenges they faced and the lessons they learned as a result.
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Slides and video from TABE Webinar “Nowcasting: Tracking Economic Activity during a Pandemic” from May 2020 with Randall Bartlett
Patrick Higgins is a policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He helps develop forecasting models and contributes to the Atlanta Fed’s weekly Deflation Probabilities report. Higgins also helped develop the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow “nowcasting” forecast to help monitor the state of the economy in real time.
Nikita Perevalov is a Director of Economic Forecasting at Scotiabank, responsible for forecasting and analysis of the Canadian and global economies, publishing thematic research pieces as well as running Scotiabank’s Canadian GDP nowcast. Prior to joining Scotiabank, Nikita worked at the Bank of Canada, most recently as a Research Advisor, focusing on model development and forecasting of the Canadian and global economies.
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