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TABE/CABE Webinar – Market Volatility, Builder Perceptions and Housing Supply Impacts

December 4, 2023

Drastic shifts in prices and housing market trends in recent years, representing shocks to the housing system, have led many residential developers to pause or cancel their projects. In the heated housing markets of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), these supply frictions can have ramifications for affordability.

Our study formulates a standardized “proforma” model of the profitability of a hypothetical condominium project in the city of Toronto, Canada, scheduled between 2019 to 2023, to explore the combined effect of developers’ price expectations and market volatility on developers’ decisions. Our results highlight the sources of risk and uncertainty in development decisions, facilitating the recognition of possible solutions including policy remedies to mitigate these risks and increase housing supply.

Download the slides in PDF Format: TABE_DeveloperExpectation_30Nov2023

dawn_headshot Professor, University of Waterloo Dawn Cassandra Parker

Dawn Parker is a Professor in the School of Planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, Canada. She has been actively involved in the development of the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation, serving previously as Associate Director and Director, and most recently leading efforts to develop a Canadian Network for Complex Systems. Her research focuses on the development of fine-scale models that link the drivers of land-use change and their socioeconomic and ecological impacts, with completed and ongoing projects on organic agriculture in California’s Central Valley, timber harvest and carbon sequestration in eastern deciduous forests in West Virginia, U.S.A., and the effects of HIV/AIDS on smallholder agricultural households in Uganda.

Her most recent work focuses on residential landscapes, examining interactions between land markets, landscaping, and carbon sequestration in ex-urban landscapes, and modelling the co-evolution of urban transit networks and residential neighborhoods via land and housing markets. Her areas of technical expertise include agent-based modelling, land-use and property market modelling, and environmental and resource economics.

Shabab_headshot Urban Planning Ph.D. student, University of Waterloo Shahab Valaei Sharif

Shahab Valaei Sharif is a Ph.D. student in Urban Planning at the University of Waterloo. He holds a master’s degree in civil engineering with a major in Construction Engineering and Management. He is interested in modelling, analyzing, and improving urban systems and the built environment in the nexus of smart, healthy cities to support evidence-based decision-making. Examples of the topical focus of this research trajectory have been on the land and housing markets, healthcare services, and transportation systems.

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